The dollar index in a strong bearish trend for a long time

August 6, 2024

The dollar index in a strong bearish trend for a long time

  • After four months, the dollar index again fell below the 103.00 level. 

Dollar index chart analysis

After four months, the dollar index again fell below the 103.00 level. On Friday, we saw a strong pullback from 104.40 to 103.10. During this morning’s Asian session, the index failed to initiate a recovery. The decline continued, and a new low was formed at the 102.41 level. After that, we see a slight recovery to the 102.60 level but remain in the support zone and beyond.

The dollar would have to reach at least 102.80 levels in order to get rid of the bearish pressure. Further growth above 103.00 would indicate that we are slowly moving away from this morning’s low. After that, the index should start a bullish consolidation and continue to grow on the bullish side. Potential higher targets are 103.20 and 103.40 levels.

 

The dollar’s value is falling under pressure from a growing number of factors.

If it does not break the resistance in the EMA 50 moving average, the index could stop at 103.50. For bearish options on the dollar index, we need the initiation of negative consolidation and a drop below this morning’s low of 102.40. With that move, we move to a new weekly low and confirm the continuation of the previous bearish trend. Potential lower targets are the 102.20 and 102.00 levels.

This week, the volume of economic news is less than in previous weeks, and the main driver of the market is the rise in tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Further escalation will have a greater impact on the market than all announced news combined. Coming back to the news to be released today: S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices. For tomorrow, we sculpt the Reserve Bank of Australia and its decision on the future interest rate. Economists predict that the interest rate will remain at the same level as before, at 4.35%.

 

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